A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
